NBA Free-Agency Predictions: LeBron James, Klay Thompson and More (2024)

The 2024 NBA free-agency period has a nice balance of All-Stars and role players, with a handful of teams possessing close to or max cap space.

There's a good amount of talent expected to stay in their current homes, such as Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.

Outside of these big names, though, there remains a fair amount of mystery.

Do LeBron James and Paul George pick up their player options to stay in Los Angeles, or opt out to explore their options on the open market? Where will Chris Paul wind up if he's waived by the Golden State Warriors? What does the future hold for Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and others?

It's time to make predictions for the biggest free agents who face the most unpredictable summers.

Chris Paul isn't technically a free agent yet, as the Golden State Warriors have until June 28 to make a decision on his contract for next season.

Given the amount of luxury-tax relief the team would receive by waiving the 12-time All-Star and his non-guaranteed $30 million deal, though, it's likely he ends up as an unrestricted free agent.

Paul shouldn't be considered a starter anymore, but he'd still be an effective backup point guard who can play 20-to-25 minutes a night off a contender's bench after averaging 9.2 points, 6.8 assists and shooting 37.1 percent from three last season.

Going back to Los Angeles is the obvious choice.

Paul's wife and children have lived in L.A. while the veteran floor general has bounced around from the Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns and Warriors. While each recent stop has gotten him close to L.A., this would finally be his chance to be with his family year-round.

The chance to play with LeBron James, one of his best friends, is an obvious draw as well.

Both 39 years of age, Paul and James are running out of chances to share an NBA court. The Lakers could have a need at point guard as well if D'Angelo Russell declines his $18.7 million player option.

With no cap space to offer, Paul will sign a one-year, veteran minimum deal with the Lakers.

Contract Prediction: One year, $3.3 million

Coming off an NBA season in which they set the record for consecutive losses and with a new president of basketball operations in Trajan Langdon, expect the Detroit Pistons to be aggressive in free agency.

They can get to $68.5 million in cap space this summer and should be looking for veteran pieces to place around their young core. This isn't going to be a realistic destination for players like LeBron James and Paul George, but Detroit should be chasing the Class B and C free agents with serious interest.

Tobias Harris checks a lot of boxes for the Pistons and isn't expected to return to the Philadelphia 76ers, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey:

"The power forward's tenure with the 76ers is expected to end once their postseason run concludes. Several NBA executives believe there's a chance he'll land with the Detroit Pistons in free agency. But there are several other teams interested in the 13th-year veteran with career averages of 16.3 points and 6.2 rebounds."

Harris remains a solid starter coming off a season in which he averaged 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He would be the favorite for the starting power forward job in Detroit, a place he called home from 2016-2018.

The 31-year-old isn't going to get anywhere close to the five-year, $180 million deal he signed in 2019, but he should still get above the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.9 million per season.

The Pistons have to get to the salary floor (90 percent of the salary cap, or about $126.9 million) before training camp starts, and adding Harris with a front-loaded deal would help them get there. Kyle Kuzma and Harrison Barnes signed similar deals last summer.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million (front loaded)

Even after a rocky season with the Golden State Warriors, Klay Thompson should have a number of teams interested in his services this offseason.

The Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons tied for dead-last in made threes per game last year (11.0) and have significant cap space. The Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets were also in the bottom 10 and could make sizable offers to the five-time All-Star.

The four-time NBA champion seems to favor the chance at another title over one last pay day, though.

Anthony Slater of The Athletic wrote: "Thompson wants to win. Don't expect him to chase the largest possible offer from the Detroit Pistons or Charlotte Hornets, even if that's the correct financial or leverage move."

The 34-year-old is going to be back in Golden State, even if negotiations drag out.

If the Warriors waive Chris Paul and his $30 million non-guaranteed deal for next year, the team would stand at $143.9 million in salary (assuming Gary Payton II picks up his $9.1 million player option and Kevon Looney is kept for $8 million).

The Warriors could sign Thompson to a multi-year contract starting at $22.2 million or less, use their taxpayer mid-level exception of $5.2 million to sign some outside help and fill out the roster with veteran minimum deals and still avoid the luxury tax line for next season.

Look for Thompson's contract to fall somewhere around this number annually in a return to Golden State. A two-year deal would tie him in with Stephen Curry's contract as well.

Contract Prediction: Two years, $46 million

Re-signing Malik Monk should be priority No. 1 for the Sacramento Kings this offseason, as the team went 42-30 with their sixth man but stumbled to 4-6 in games that he missed, including a 2-5 record to end the year.

Due to "Early Bird" limitations, the Kings are limited in what they can pay the 26-year-old without using cap space, something they don't have. If he wants to return to Sacramento, he can only sign a four-year deal valued at $78 million.

Given that Monk has yet to make more than $9.9 million in any of his seven seasons, it's time for him to cash in.

The Orlando Magic serve as the perfect home as a team that needs offensive help and can pay the Kentucky product more than what the Kings can offer. Orlando possesses $32.8 million in cap space, but it can open up an additional $28.4 million if it parts with Jonathan Isaac and Joe Ingles.

The Magic will need to outbid the Kings, perhaps by a few million dollars a season in order for Monk to leave a good situation that he's thrived in. The chance to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career and make over $20 million a season while playing for a young playoff team on the rise should be enough for him to leave Sacramento for Orlando.

Adding his scoring and playmaking next to Jalen Suggs in the backcourt will be a nice move for the Magic as well.

Contract Prediction: Four years, $90 million

Paul George should have real interest in joining the Philadelphia 76ers this summer, as a core of him, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey could be the best Big Three in the NBA if they stay healthy.

George may even take a free-agent visit to Philadelphia and should take one from the Orlando Magic, teams that give him the option to sign a max deal and compete for a championship over the next four years.

The Clippers haven't been willing to give the 34-year-old more than the three-year, $153.2 million extension they handed out to Kawhi Leonard, although the real threat of George leaving for Philly on a max deal is going to force Los Angeles to pony up.

Clippers owner Steve Ballmer isn't going to be outbid for his All-Star, especially months before moving into the brand-new Intuit Dome this fall.

George shouldn't want to leave his hometown area of Los Angeles. The three-man combo of him, Leonard and James Harden were successful when healthy in their first season together (plus-10.6 net rating in 2,503 possessions, 94th percentile via Cleaning the Glass). Ty Lue is one of the best head coaches in all of basketball who just signed an extension through the 2028-29 season.

The Clippers can give the nine-time All-Star a max deal of up to four years and $221 million, although the Sixers or any other team can only sign him up to $212 million over the same amount of time.

If the money is the same, expect George to stay at home in L.A.

Contract Prediction: Four years, $212 million

DeMar DeRozan is perhaps the most difficult free agent to peg a destination for.

The veteran forward will turn 35 in August yet is still playing at a high level, making the All-Star team twice in his three seasons with the Chicago Bulls. But he's not an easy plug in to any offensive system as a ball-dominant wing who does most of his own scoring in the mid-range.

DeRozan could reportedly stay in Chicago and make $80 million over the next two years. He could also try to move home to Los Angeles and play on a discount for the Clippers or Lakers with a better chance at winning a championship.

The answer to his future may lie somewhere in the middle.

If the Philadelphia 76ers strike out on signing LeBron James and Paul George this summer and can't work out a trade for Jimmy Butler or Brandon Ingram with no players to send back in return, both the Sixers and DeRozan should have mutual interest.

Signing the six-time All-Star as a third offensive option next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey could still leave Philly with $20 million in cap space, enough to pursue another starter or try to re-sign players such as De'Anthony Melton, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Kyle Lowry.

DeRozan averaged 24.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.1 steals and shot 48.0 percent overall this past season. His durability (74 games or more in all three years with the Bulls) is important for the Sixers given Embiid's injury history.

This may not be the first choice for either side, yet the Sixers can still get an All-Star-caliber wing and DeRozan can get one last big payday by joining forces this summer.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $100 million with team option

Even as he approaches his 40th birthday, LeBron James remains perhaps the best unrestricted free agent on the market should he turn down his player option.

The Philadelphia 76ers will make their pitch with a max contract in hand and two other All-Stars to play with. Plenty of contenders will try (and fail) to convince him to take the $12.9 million mid-level exception to come and join them.

In the end, James isn't going anywhere.

He's likely going to get the head coach he wants in J.J. Redick, one of his best friends in Chris Paul, and the Lakers have three first-round picks to use in a trade for a third star.

Add in the fact that the Lakers can offer him the most money ($164.3 million over three years) and James should be quite satisfied staying home in L.A.

Putting all of their first-round picks on the table and some of their role players should give the Lakers a chance at landing Trae Young or Donovan Mitchell, or at the very least a player like Dejounte Murray or Darius Garland. L.A. can pitch James on all the ways it can improve the roster and could pursue Bronny James with its No. 55 overall pick or in a potential trade up.

James can make more money by picking up his $51.4 million player option and extending off of it for two seasons, per Bobby Marks of ESPN, but he is eligible to get a no-trade clause if he opts out and signs a three-year deal instead.

Expect James to give $2.4 million back in order to get the no-trade protection in his contract, one that may end up being his last in the NBA.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $162 million with full no-trade clause